The majority of Europe will experience higher warming than the global
average if surface temperatures rise to 2 °C above pre-industrial
levels, according to a new study published on 7th March..
Under such a scenario, temperatures greater than the 2 °C global
average will be experienced in Northern and Eastern Europe in winter and
Southern Europe in summer; however, North-Western Europe—specifically
the UK—will experience a lower relative warming.
The study, which has been published today, 7 March, in IOP Publishing's journal
Environmental Research Letters,
also shows that in the summer, daily maximum temperatures could
increase by 3 °C over South-Eastern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula
and rise well above 40 °C in regions that already experience some of the
highest temperatures in Europe, such as Spain, Portugal and France.
Such higher temperatures will increase evaporation and drought.
In the winter, the maximum daily temperatures could increase by more than 6 °C across Scandinavia and Russia.
Lead author of the research Robert Vautard, from Laboratoire des
Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (CEA/CNRS/UVSQ), said: "The 2
°C warming target has mainly been decided among nations as a limit not
to exceed in order to avoid possibly dangerous climate change. However,
the consequences of such a warming, at the scale of a continent like
Europe, have not yet been quantified.
"We find that, even for such an ambitious target as 2 °C, changes in
European climate are significant and will lead to significant impacts."
The study also shows that there will be a robust increase in
precipitation( 10% )over Central and Northern Europe in the winter and
Northern Europe in the summer, and that most of the continent will
experience an increase in instances of extreme precipitation, increasing
the flood risks which are already having significant economic
consequences.
Southern Europe is an exception, and will experience a general decline in mean precipitation (10%).
Read more in the source at:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-03/iop-rme030614.php
And in:
http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2014/03/07/avec-un-rechauffement-de-2-degres-les-etes-en-france-depasseront-les-40-degres_4379573_3244.html
Journal Reference:
- Robert
Vautard, Andreas Gobiet, Stefan Sobolowski, Erik Kjellström, Annemiek
Stegehuis, Paul Watkiss, Thomas Mendlik, Oskar Landgren, Grigory
Nikulin, Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2014; 9 (3): 034006 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006