Explosions in Nord Stream I and Nord Stream II: climate danger of methane
The Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, which connect Russia with Germany via the Baltic Sea and are intended to supply Russian natural gas (up to 95% in methane) to Europe, were subject to four underwater explosions on Monday, September 26. These led to large methane leaks off the Danish island of Bornholm, located between southern Sweden and Poland with spectacular bubbling on the surface of the water, with a diameter ranging from 200 meters to 1 kilometer. Traffic in the area has been banned due to the danger of explosive fires as methane is flammable. This has not affected the current price and supply of gas to Europe as both pipelines were out of service. Everything indicates that these explosions were not accid ofental, but sabotage carried out by a powerful State. Given the geopolitical context, experts wondered about possible Russian involvement, some evoking a new episode of the Moscow-led "hybrid war" to destabilize Europe. Russia denies this and points at the United States as a beneficiary since it gains from greater exports of American liquefied natural gas.
The concern is great, and that is that the pipelines, although they were not operational, contain for technical reasons natural gas, composed mainly of methane, a very powerful greenhouse gas. Its warming potential is much greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2), 82 times more over a twenty-year horizon, 29 times more in a hundred years. Methane has been responsible for a third of global warming since the pre-industrial era and its emissions have risen sharply in recent years.
According to several scientists, the pipelines contain between 300 and 500 million cubic meters of natural gas, or between 200,000 and 300,000 tons of methane. This amount has the same warming power, over a period of twenty years, as that of 17 to 25 million tons of CO2. If all the gas escaped, emissions would be equivalent to a third or even half of Denmark's annual emissions, or 4 to 7% of French emissions, or about 7% of Spain's emissions in 2020. They raise fears of a "climate and environmental disaster," Stefano Grassi, Chief of Staff to the European Energy Commissioner, said Tuesday, Sept. 27.
Scientist Thomas Lauvaux is the first author of a study published in February in the journal Science, which revealed that massive methane leaks are many and mostly caused by oil and gas exploitation. The team had detected 1,800 major foci in 2019 and 2020 worldwide, emitting a total of 12 billion cubic meters of methane per year. Each of these "superemisors," as they are called released an average of 7 million cubic meters of gas. "The leak in the Nord Stream pipelines is 50 to 75 times greater. We are facing a "gigatransmitter". We can talk about a 'climate bomb,'" says Thomas Lauvaux.
Another caveat needs to be added: at the end of February, the International Energy Agency revealed that methane emissions from the energy sector are 70% higher than the amounts officially reported by governments. The practice in the oil industry of burning unwanted methane is less effective than previously assumed, scientists said recently, resulting in new estimates for releases of this large greenhouse gas in the United States that are about five times higher than previous ones.
In a study of the three largest oil and gas basins in the United States, researchers found that this practice, known as flaring gas, often does not completely burn methane. And in many cases, they found that the flares become extinct and do not rekindle so all the methane escapes into the atmosphere. Improving efficiency and ensuring all flares remain on would result in annual emissions reductions in the United States equivalent to taking nearly 3 million cars off the road each year, the scientists said. Predictably, the same thing happens in other parts of the world.
Faster action needs to be taken in fossil fuel hotspots. We know where major leaks come from; we know how to avoid them or how to repair them quickly. But so far there has been a lack of political will to abandon bad practices. Most leaks are not accidents, but are caused during production and maintenance operations.
Global emissions in the world of methane are estimated at around 600 million tons per year, 60% of which are related to human activities. These emissions come from three sectors: agriculture (40%, mainly ruminants), fossil fuels (35%, gas leaks and coal mines) and waste (20%, including landfills). Methane emissions account for 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Although methane is emitted into the atmosphere in smaller amounts than CO2, its warming potential is 25 times greater over time. As a result, methane emissions currently contribute to more than a third of warming.
The fight against methane is the one that "has the most impact in the short term" against climate change, the scientists recall. Methane emissions that are due to waste from the agro-food sector and urban organics/wastewater, it is advisable to take advantage of it to produce biofuel biomethane and organic fertilizers, rich in nutrients, in anaerobic biodigesters.
In November 2021, at the World Climate Conference (COP26) in Glasgow (Scotland) more than a hundred states, including Spain, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Iraq, committed to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. This is the first international commitment in this area. Signatory countries cover nearly half of global methane emissions and 70% of global gross domestic product. If respected, this pact would prevent 0.2°C of warming by 2050.
Mahmoud M. Rabbani
Doctor in chemistry
Director of a sustainable development over-seas programme
