Trump’s Gamble in Venezuela: Power, Oil, and Political Illusion
Donald Trump’s push into Venezuela isn’t about democracy or freedom—it’s about oil, control, and the illusion of cheap energy at home. But between ambition and reality lies a deep political and economic trap.
The Real Target: Oil, Not Democracy
The latest political and military moves by the United States in Venezuela leave little doubt about Donald Trump’s priorities. His goal isn’t to restore democracy or free Venezuelans from Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian rule. What Trump really wants is control—control over Venezuela’s oil.
He appears convinced that if he can bring Venezuela’s vast untapped reserves to market, gasoline prices in the U.S. will drop, giving him a political boost ahead of November’s midterm elections. But as I argued in Le Monde, this ambition is far from straightforward. A sharp fall in oil prices would make many U.S. wells—particularly those dependent on expensive fracking—unprofitable, leading to reduced production and, eventually, another price surge. The promise of cheap gas may be little more than a mirage.
A Costly Calculation
While the U.S. holds significant reserves, extracting them is increasingly expensive—about $60 per barrel today and possibly $95 by 2030. Venezuela, by contrast, boasts the world’s largest oil reserves and lower extraction costs (around $40 a barrel). Yet its crude is heavy and sulfur-rich, making it costly to refine.
Reviving Venezuela’s decrepit industry would require massive investment, but the technical hurdles are surmountable. For Trump, that represents a dual opportunity: to expand U.S. oil companies’ footprint and secure cheaper crude at a time when energy has become a central campaign theme. His denial of climate change positions him as a defender of fossil fuel interests, deepening his hostility toward renewables.
A Modern Imperial Logic
Trump has described his plan in language that harks back to an imperial past. “We’re going to exploit Venezuelan oil, and we want to be paid for our services,” he said. It’s a modern form of extractive imperialism—echoing the colonial “home charges,” the profits empires once claimed for managing their colonies’ resources.
In this worldview, Venezuela is not a partner but a territory to be mined and billed. Beneath this rhetoric lies a deeper energy struggle with China. Beijing currently buys roughly 80 percent of Venezuela’s oil, making Caracas a crucial supplier for its energy security. If Washington could sever that link, it would deal a strategic blow to China’s access to cheap hydrocarbons—a major advantage in the global energy race.
Trump seems to grasp a century-old truth: whoever controls energy, controls power. Yet his Venezuela policy is not just another act of U.S. interference—it’s part of a global scramble for dwindling resources in an era when even America’s oil is no longer “cheap.”
The Gap Between Ambition and Reality
The problem is that Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is on the verge of collapse. Years of mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions have left it in ruins. Political economist John Rapley estimates that restoring it would require over $100 billion in investment over the next 15 years.
For oil majors like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips, Venezuela is a high-risk venture plagued by legal uncertainty, past expropriations, and political instability. More stable and profitable opportunities exist in Africa, the Middle East, and North America. Repsol, however, may stand to gain thanks to its regional presence and experience; the company plans to triple its investments and output there.
The Political Trap
History offers a sobering lesson. In Iraq and Afghanistan, local militias drove out U.S. forces despite overwhelming military might. Trump and his advisers—isolated in Washington and surrounded by loyalists—seem to ignore how national pride and humiliation can reignite resistance. Underestimating this political dynamic could turn his Venezuelan adventure into another costly quagmire.
Could Trump truly stabilize Venezuela under the new president, Delcy Rodríguez? He insists that free elections are a distraction from the urgent need to revive oil production. But analysts point out a simple truth: without political legitimacy, there can be no sustainable investment.
Without credible elections and a solid democratic framework, foreign capital won’t flow, and neither production nor exports will rise significantly. Energy companies, no matter how pragmatic, need legal guarantees and institutional predictability before committing to long-term projects.
Energy, Power, and the Price of Control
Trump’s Venezuela strategy blends economic ambition, electoral calculus, and geopolitical maneuvering. His aim is clear: dominate oil to control prices, weaken China, and campaign as the president who “brought back American energy.”
But Venezuela’s grim reality—its shattered infrastructure, entrenched political divides, and collapsing economy—makes this vision far more complicated than his rhetoric suggests. On the global energy chessboard, Venezuela is both a coveted prize and a political labyrinth.
Trump is learning what every empire has eventually discovered: even in oil politics, no barrel comes cheap.
Mahmoud M. Rabbani
Director, Sustainable Development Overseas Programme
PhD in Chemical Sciences
