jueves, 5 de enero de 2012
An inevitable decline of oil production: One more reason so as to develop renewable energies and efficient use of energy
Olivier Rech, responsible for petroleum issues at the International Energy Agency from 2006 to 2009, expects an inevitable overall decline of oil production "somewhere between 2015 and 2020".
He says: Outside OPEC, (which represents 58% of production and 23% of global reserves) things are clear: of 40 million barrels per day (mb/d) of conventional petroleum extracted from existing fields, we face an annual decline on the order of 1 to 2 mb/d. For OPEC production (42% of production and 77% of global reserves) he says that the data are still opaque and he notes that Barclays and Goldman Sachs banks estimate that the spare production capacity of OPEC, more particularly that of Saudi Arabia, is significantly lower that what is officially claimed.
Total evokes the possibility of maintaining production on a plateau of about 95 mb/d until 2030.
He says that is true. The production of oil has already been on a plateau since 2005 at around 82 mb/d[NB: with biofuels and coal-to-liquid, we approximate 88 mb/d for all liquid fuels.] It appears to him impossible to go much higher. Since demand is still on an increasing trajectory (unless, possibly, the economic crisis engulfs the emerging economies), He expects to see the first tensions arising between 2013 and 2015.